Research Interests
Political determinants of hazard impacts
How does armed conflict affect the societal and humanitarian impacts of natural hazards? When do natural hazards become natural disasters? My research explores how political and institutional factors shape societies’ vulnerability to environmental threats like storms, floods, and droughts. I investigate how conflict dynamics, institutional structures, and policy choices influence disaster preparedness, response, and long-term resilience.
For example, in an article published in the Journal of Peace Research, I investigate how the dynamics of ongoing armed conflict exacerbates the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. By analyzing tropical cyclones in the Philippines, I show that periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase cyclone-related fatalities. This research highlights how political instability and violence can undermine disaster response capacity, leaving populations more exposed to environmental risks.
Papers
Political consequences of hazard exposure
Will climate change lead to more conflict? What are the long-term institutional and societal consequences of repeated hazard exposure? In this line of research, I examine how environmental pressures influence conflict, social and political cohesion, and state-building processes.
For example, in an article with Alexander De Juan in the Journal of Peace Research, we investigate how prolonged drought conditions influence intra- and inter-ethnic trust - an often invoked mechanism of how climate change can fuel armed conflicts. Importantly, we find that the effect of drought exposure depends on the degree of equality of hazard exposure between ethnic groups.
Another project explores how natural disasters act catalyst for the expansion of state authority. Historically, external pressures like warfare have prompted expansionary institutional reforms. This project examines how and why societies that experience repeated exposure to natural hazards adapt their political structures, whether through increased state capacity, new taxation mechanisms, or shifts in governance norms. I argue that natural hazards are an informational signal that shows that current state institutions are insufficient to provide protection. This, in turn, can make citizens more accepting of increased state authority. By analyzing historical data on earthquakes and fiscal institutions, I show that significant earthquakes have led to an expansion of state authority and capacity.
Papers
International climate finance
How is international climate finance allocated on the subnational level, and who benefits most from it? My research in this area examines the political and economic factors that influence the distribution of international climate adaptation aid. While donor states and international organizations have pledged to support vulnerable populations, aid allocation often follows political and strategic considerations rather than actual climate risk.
For example, in collaboration with Viktoria Jansesberger, we analyze subnational adaptation aid distribution in the Philippines. Using a novel geo-coded dataset of climate adaptation projects, we investigate whether hazard exposure, vulnerability, or recent disaster impacts drive aid allocation. Our findings suggest that immediate humanitarian crises, rather than structural risk components, are the primary drivers of adaptation aid, raising concerns about the effectiveness of current funding mechanisms in building long-term resilience.
Papers